What is Total Cost Per Mile for truckload carriers?

Chris Henry runs fleet profitability benchmarking and analytics for FreightWaves and facilitates the TCA’s TPP program. If you are interested in benchmarking your fleet’s performance with the best operators, join TCA’s TPP. The data presented in this article come from analytics of over 230 truckload for-hire fleets, representing more than 70,000 trucks.  A wise trucker …

What is Total Cost Per Mile for truckload carriers?

Chris Henry FreightWaves 2020 01 13

Chris Henry runs fleet profitability benchmarking and analytics for FreightWaves and facilitates the TCA’s TPP program. If you are interested in benchmarking your fleet’s performance with the best operators, join TCA’s TPP.

The data presented in this article come from analytics of over 230 truckload for-hire fleets, representing more than 70,000 trucks. 

A wise trucker once said, “The only way to make money in trucking is to not spend it.” Truer words have never been spoken. This business is a game of razor-thin margins, and an infinite (and growing) number of risks and curveballs. This article is the first of two that will: 1) breakdown the cost components of operating a truck (and a trucking company); and 2) establish a financial framework for improved margins and bottom lines.

It’s very difficult for trucking companies to achieve higher than average rates per mile, per hour and per week. Due to low barriers to market entry, fleets and operators of all sizes are able to add capacity very easily to the market. As a result, shippers benefit from these hyper-competitive effects with rates that don’t typically capture the expense realities of trucking. 

Source: FreightWaves SONAR – NETREV.VCFOO, NETREV.RCFOO, NETREV.FCFOO

Total operating expenses in trucking (excluding very specialized operating models), range from extremes of $1.16 to $3.05 per mile when you simply take the best and worst from each of the categories below. Realistically, no trucking company could achieve an average total operating cost per total mile of $1.16, nor would they survive at $3.05 per mile. However, this article will illustrate the wide variances, and opportunity costs that operators realize on a day-to-day basis.

As the main pricing mechanism for trucking is the mile, it is important that industry participants understand their expenses relative to the miles generated by their trucks in a given week or month. Doing so provides an easier methodology to match  operating expenses with pricing decisions. 

Source: FreightWaves SONAR – MILTR.VCFOO, MILTR.RCFOO, MILTR.FCFOO

Total operating cost per mile summary table

According to the Truckload Carrier Association’s TPP fleet data (available to TPP members and SONAR subscribers), a for-hire truckload carrier will average between 1,700-1,900 miles per truck per week throughout the year, except for December. 

Average operating expenses for a carrier on a per mile basis: 

Expense Category Low Range High Range
Driver Compensation $0.48 per Mile $0.83 per Mile
Fuel  $0.40 per Mile $0.55 per Mile
Equipment Financing $0.00 per Mile $0.40 per Mile
Maintenance  $0.09 per Mile $0.40 per Mile
Insurance  $0.06 per Mile $0.18 per Mile
Variable Driving Expenses $0.01 per Mile $0.09 per Mile
Non-Driver Compensation $0.06 per Mile $0.30 per Mile
Fixed Overhead $0.06 per Mile $0.30 per Mile

Source: Truckload Carriers Association TPP Program for all carriers in the program. Data is available in SONAR. 

Driver compensation ($0.48-$0.83 per mile)

A disclaimer for independent contractors (ICs), driving labor does not equal ‘profit.’ The most successful ICs pay themselves a market wage in addition to projected profit. Whether the amount is actually ‘paid out’ as wages is another issue unique to the personal tax situation, and state/provincial residency of each IC.  Driving labor expense is the single largest expense for trucking companies. Depending on the geographic region, operating mode and length of haul, the combination of driving compensation, benefits and payroll taxes ranges from 28% to 50% of revenue. Industry averages for total driving labor expense per mile range from $0.49 to $0.83 ($0.67 per mile on average). This amount includes base wages, incentive compensation, per diem, accessorial pay, workers comp, health insurance and retirement benefits.

Recruiting and keeping drivers remains a difficult task for carriers, but several experts said that a strong social media approach improves both tasks. ( Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves )

Fuel ($0.40-$0.55 per mile)

Fuel represents the second-largest variable operating expense for any company or owner-operator. However, the difference between a top and bottom performer in trucking is directly correlated to the ‘net fuel expense’ calculation. Net fuel expense is simply the sum of gross fuel receipts, including taxes and additives minus fuel surcharge generated for the same time period. Top-performing trucking companies and ICs focus on some of these items and practices to reduce the gross fuel spend:

  1. Reducing speed and idle time, and maintaining proper shifting patterns
  2. Implementing fuel-saving technologies, equipment and practices (e.g. APUs, truck and trailer fairings, etc.)
  3. Reduce empty miles (unless it is more advantageous from a margin/yield perspective)
  4. Maximize ‘in network’ fuel spend. This one occurs when economies of scale really take hold, as fuel discounts are directly related to the volume of fuel purchased – the more fuel purchased, the lower the net fuel per gallon/litre.

Typically, gross fuel expense averages between $0.40-$0.55 per mile. However, when you factor in fuel surcharge and some or all the practices above, the net fuel spend can be dramatically less. Some trucking companies go further than most, utilizing financial instruments to ‘hedge’ their fuel expense from changes in the cost of diesel.

Trucks loading up on diesel. (Photo credit: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Equipment financing expense ($0.00-$0.40 per mile)

To be a trucker, you need a truck. Being mechanically inclined provides a distinct advantage for independent contractors and fleets alike. Being able to properly maintain equipment allows ICs and trucking companies to extend the average age of their trucks, and thereby reduce the large expense related to financing both trucks and trailers. In recent years, tax law changes have permitted accelerated capital equipment depreciation rates, meaning if a trucking company still owes money on its trucks and trailers, it is likely able to net more dollars after tax than before these changes. In recent years, fleets have reduced the average age of trucks to 2.3 years (on average). This trend is based on a growing school of thought that younger equipment reduces total tractor lifecycle expense (although this may be debatable based on original equipment manufacturer, specifications and operating conditions). In addition to traditional note financing, fleets and ICs alike have standard lease options available to them, along with Fair Market and Full-Service leases (the former taking care of the majority of maintenance expenses for a premium charge). As a percentage of revenue, due to the wide variety of financing strategies implemented by fleets and ICs, the cost of financing trucks and trailers ranges from 0%-30%.

Maintenance ($0.09-$0.40 per mile)

Based on my observations of over 200 trucking companies throughout North America, maintenance represents the largest margin opportunity for most companies. To be clear, maintenance expenses should capture all labor, parts, tires, supplies, oil, lube and fixed overhead (e.g. tools, shop rent, utilities, etc.). The difference between the top performers on maintenance and the bottom performers range from a low of $0.09 per mile to over $0.40 per mile! You read that right, that’s a $0.29 swing from top to bottom – think of the money going out the door! For many smaller fleets, especially those that do not use traditional accrual accounting, I suggest capturing the total maintenance spend over the past six months and keep rolling that average forward as each month unfolds. This reduces swings in large repairs from month to month and provides a clear picture of your maintenance expense.

Using VMRS codes can help fleets track down problems and reduce maintenance costs. (hoto credit: Shutterstock)

Insurance ($0.06-$0.18 per mile)

Insurance, for the purposes of this article and exercise, is the total cost of liability, physical damage and cargo insurance premiums and deductibles, plus the expense of any other accident-related damages. The latter item is one which sometimes gets ignored or is inappropriately categorized as a maintenance expense. In recent years the cost of insurance has been dramatically affected by the growing trend of nuclear verdicts in multiple jurisdictions and continued general accident repair expenses. This trend has led more companies and single truck operators to shoulder more of the burden of insurance themselves through higher deductibles and captive insurance arrangements. Increasing the deductible per incident (retention) also raises the risk of financial harm in the event of an accident. As such, a prudent operator should invest any insurance expense savings in practices and technologies to reduce the probability of accidents in the future, such as in-cab event recorders, collision mitigation tech and enhanced entry-level driver driving.

(Image credit: Shutterstock)

Variable driving expenses ($0.01-$0.09 per mile)

This category is the most nuanced of the expense categories, and the last of the ‘variable’ operating expenses. This group captures all the permits, tolls, fines, along with motels, lumper fees and driver orientation/screening and recruiting expenses (which can be significant depending on the size of operator/company). As such, it is a bit of a ‘catchall’ for those items that don’t fit cleanly into one of the other large buckets. Top performers keep an eye on the above items to ensure that they aren’t a symptom of inefficient dispatch (layovers), unsafe practices (fines), poor routing decisions (tolls) and bad culture (increased turnover).

Non-driver wages & benefits ($0.06-$0.30 per mile)

This is an area in which independent contractors have an advantage, as they handle all sales, administrative and operating activities themselves. However, they are very susceptible to spot market changes, and the reliance on brokers or load boards for freight. For those that seek to grow their fleet, you need to start hiring people for sales, dispatch, finance and safety roles. Depending on the operating mode (trailer type) and length of haul, a trucking company will have three to six drivers for every one non-driver. For smaller fleets, the expense of non-driving positions represents as much as 15% of revenue. As a company grows, and implements software and standard processes, the cost of non-driving activities can be reduced significantly (by 4-7% of revenue).

Fixed overhead ($0.06-$0.30 per mile)

The last of all operating expense categories is fixed overhead expense. This category will capture all rent, office supplies, software, utilities and communications expenses (among many other possible expenses). Generally speaking, from a percentage of revenue perspective, the cost associated with this category should closely approximate the cost of non-driver wages and benefits.

Truck drivers. (Photo credit: Shutterstock)

Summary

You cannot simply take the sum of the lowest values and highest values for each of the above categories to establish total operating expense per mile range for trucking. This industry has an endless number of modes and operating models, not to mention people and aptitudes. Being a top performer in one category doesn’t necessarily equate to top performance in multiple categories. However, understanding the numbers and their place in your margin equation can be the difference between survival and realizing the American (and Canadian) dream. 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/understanding-total-operating-cost-per-mile

Morgan Stanley sees lower truck capacity, higher rates in 2020

Morgan Stanley eyeing truck capacity constraints and higher rates in 2020, potentially reaching 2018 levels or higher.

Morgan Stanley sees lower truck capacity, higher rates in 2020

Todd Maiden FreightWaves 2019 12 13

In a report to clients, financial services firm Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) examines potential reasons truck supply could be constrained in 2020, causing trucking rates to climb.

The firm’s transportation, retail and machinery analysts contributed to the report.

“We see five Trucking supply-side catalysts potentially constraining truck supply in 2020, similar to what the ELD mandate did in 2018. Memories of 2018 are still fresh which should help mitigate the impact but we still see risk to EPS [earnings per share] across Retail, tailwinds for Trucking (TLs) and Class 8 Trucks,” the report stated.

Capacity-constraining catalysts

The firm highlights five catalysts that could draw down truck capacity.

The first is the final electronic logging device (ELD) rule requiring carriers to convert from automatic on-board recording devices (AOBRDs), an earlier version of ELDs that provided significantly less data and the capability to alter some data, to ELDs by Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2019. The mandate is intended to provide a safer work environment for drivers, make the flow of data easier and faster and ensure the data is not compromised.

The second catalyst highlighted in the report is the precipitous increase in insurance rates. As juries in lawsuits related to catastrophic accidents have begun to award “nuclear verdicts” — those in the tens of millions of dollars — carriers have seen insurance premiums spike by 50% to more than double. Even well-capitalized, larger fleets have noted the pain from the increase in insurance rates.

The Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse, which aims to speed the reporting of drivers’ positive drug or alcohol tests, was cited as potentially drawing down capacity as well. The clearinghouse is designed to prevent drivers from failing a pre-employment screening with one carrier then finding a job with another carrier before the positive test appears on their record. Reporting of failed tests on the federal database is required starting Jan. 6, 2020.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 regulation, which begins Jan. 1, is aimed at significantly reducing sulphur emissions by enacting a 0.5% sulfur restriction in 2020, which is down significantly from the existing 3.5% mandate. This will require the maritime industry to use fuels with lower sulphur content. The expectation is that this will create increased demand for refined products like diesel. The range of forecasts on the impact of diesel demand is wide, with some speculating that as much as 2.5 million barrels of distillate per day would be needed to offset the high-sulfur fuel oil that the maritime industry can no longer use without installing scrubbers.

Morgan Stanley estimates that diesel prices could increase by 5-33%, placing increased financial strain on the smaller carriers, which make up the bulk of the TL industry. The thought is that many smaller operators have inadequate fuel surcharge programs in place to pass through the fuel cost increase to the shipper.

Lastly, the report cited California Assembly Bill 5, or the California AB 5 rule, as a headwind for truck capacity. The rule, which goes into effect Jan 1, 2020, is designed to limit the definition of independent contractors, requiring many of the independent owner-operators with whom carriers contract to haul loads to be reclassified as company employees. While the new bill faces legal challenges, some carriers have already begun to alter their operations in California, with some attempting to unwind their exposure to the state completely.

The Morgan Stanley report stated that the best-case scenario would provide no change to capacity in California if all owner-operators were offered and accepted employee driver positions with a company. However, it labeled this scenario “highly unlikely” and indicated independent contractor rules are a creeping concern as other states will likely begin to pursue some type of similar reform. This is already in the works in New Jersey.

Some of the trucking industry’s largest companies have also highlighted a range of headwinds to truck capacity in recent months.

Potential impact to rates and earnings

The report suggested that 2020 could provide a scenario similar to 2018 with regard to truck capacity and rates. In 2018, the year of the original mandate to ELDs from paper logs to enforce stricter adherence to hours of service rules, some truck capacity exited the industry in lieu of compliance. The firm believes that the 2018 mandate resulted in a high-single-digit to low-double-digit hit to truck capacity, causing TL spot rates to spike 30%, with contract rates moving 15-20% higher.

“2020 could potentially see a repeat of the supply-side constraints that drove truck pricing to all-time-high levels in 2018,” the report stated.

It added that these capacity headwinds could provide potential upside to TL EPS estimates “that could close the 20% gap between post-2018 EPS peaks and current trough earnings” as truck pricing moves higher. The firm estimates that the impact of all five catalysts could be bigger than what occurred in 2018. The “low case” presents a scenario in which contract rates increase 2-3% and spot rates climb 5-10% in 2020. The “medium case” calls for contract rates to increase 5-10% and spot rates to rise 20-25% next year. The “high case” predicts contract rates to rise 15-20%, with spot rates surging 35-40%.

Shanker is currently modeling low-single-digit price increases for the TLs in 2020, closer to the low case scenario that calls for spot rates to improve 5-10% in the first half of 2020 with contract rates flat to slightly negative in the first half, but up 2-3% in the second half. The report noted that this scenario results in EPS estimates that are 7-10% higher than current consensus estimates. Further, if the medium case scenario played out, earnings estimates would move at least 10% higher and more than 20% higher if the high case scenario occurred.

From the report, “we have already seen a clear bottom in the second derivative of spot/contract rates, as well as the absolute rates start to rebound, which we believe sets up the TLs well for further boosts in pricing and operating ratio (OR) if truck rates were to sharply rise next year.”

The report also highlighted a scenario wherein there would be upside to Class 8 production forecasts if capacity were culled out of the market due to these catalysts, but it didn’t offer what the impact to earnings for the original equipment manufacturers would look like. The report noted a high correlation between Class 8 truck orders and TL spot rates and stated that Class 8 orders could increase 50-100% in late 2020 to early 2021 if spot rates increased in the 20-25% range.

Class 8 Truck Orders – SONAR: ORDERS.CL8

Lastly, the report noted that the potential increase in rates to ship goods via truck presents an EPS risk (base case) of 2-3% for the retail space and as much as 4-7% downside to estimates if these capacity constraints materialize greater than expected.

Morgan Stanley conducted a survey of approximately 400 carriers, brokers and shippers to produce its expectations around these events. Of those surveyed, 65-70% expect the first three catalysts (ELDs, rising insurance costs and the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse) to have at least a small impact on capacity in 2020. Fifty-one percent of those polled expect an impact to capacity from IMO 2020, and 62% see an impact from the California AB 5 rule.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-lower-truck-capacity-higher-rates-in-2020